ONE PIECE TCG Draw Odds
Know the odds of seeing your 4-of before you commit to a keep. This calculator uses transparent hypergeometric math - no sampled hands, no black box.
deck → looks → probability
Calculate your hit rate
Use “extra looks” only for cards examined from your deck that can actually find the piece under your stated assumption.
Searchers are not all the same. This uses a simplified “extra valid looks” model. A search that selects a trait, bottoms cards, thins the deck, or fails to find your target has card-specific odds this generic tool cannot infer.
How the draw probability calculator works
Hypergeometric probability measures the chance of drawing a number of target cards from a finite deck without replacement. For exactly k hits when a deck has N cards, K targets, and n looks:
P(X = k) = C(K, k) × C(N − K, n − k) / C(N, n)
For “at least one,” the calculator sums each valid result from one hit upward. The opening redraw result treats the full redraw as a fresh five-card hand after a shuffle: chance to miss both attempts is the miss chance squared.
A checked reference case
A 4-of in a 50-card deck seen in five cards has a 35.3% chance of appearing at least once. The result is 1 − C(46, 5) / C(50, 5). This number is a useful sanity check for any deck calculator; it is not a guaranteed keep decision.
About “by turn N”
The tool starts at five opening cards. It adds one natural draw for each of your turns, except that the player who goes first skips their first Draw Phase. Extra looks are capped at the deck size and treated as additional random cards seen - not as an exact emulation of a named searcher.
What are the odds of drawing my 4-of?
Set deck size to 50, copies to 4, copies required to 1, then choose the turn and any extra valid looks. In a five-card opening hand the result is 35.3%; your actual by-turn result changes with turn order and cards seen.
Should I include cards in Life as “draws”?
No. Life cards are not cards you have drawn to hand. The calculator begins with the opening hand and then counts cards you see via draws or a stated search effect.
Does the mulligan result account for hand selection?
It models the specific case where you full-redraw a hand that missed your stated target. It does not rate partial mulligans or the value of the non-target cards you keep.